Kenyans may soon face a significant jump in fuel costs, with projections indicating petrol prices could climb to around Ksh231 per litre in the upcoming review. The anticipated increase, potentially ranging between Ksh30 and Ksh60, reflects mounting pressure from rising global oil prices and tightening local supply conditions ahead of the April 14 pricing cycle.
Speaking on April 7, Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK) Chair Martin Chomba explained that current pump price stability is only temporary. He noted that most fuel currently in circulation was imported before the recent global surge, meaning newer, more expensive shipments are yet to fully impact the market.
Regional trends are already signalling what may come. Tanzania recently raised fuel prices by over 30 per cent, and Chomba suggested Kenya could follow a similar path, translating to an increase of about Ksh53.4 per litre. He warned that delaying adjustments could disrupt supply, stressing that Kenya lacks strategic fuel reserves and depends heavily on continuous imports. According to him, existing stocks in the pipeline can only last between 21 and 30 days.
However, the government has urged calm. Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura stated on April 3 that there are no immediate plans to raise prices, citing the arrival of new fuel consignments and efforts to stabilise supply. He maintained that the situation will be reassessed later in April.
Meanwhile, distribution challenges persist, especially in rural areas where smaller retailers report limited access to fuel. In some regions, fuel remains in storage but has not reached stations due to logistical and clearance delays.
Concerns over fuel quality have also emerged, with reports of higher sulphur content in some imports. While still usable, such fuel raises compliance and vehicle performance questions. Despite possible government intervention through subsidies, market forces are expected to ultimately dictate pump prices.