The enduring “Raila effect” could yet tilt the 2027 presidential race in President William Ruto’s favour.
New data suggests that Raila Odinga’s decision to join hands with the Kenya Kwanza administration continues to soften resistance to Ruto’s leadership – even after the veteran opposition leader’s death.
A new survey by TIFA shows that support for the broad-based government forged through the Ruto-Raila power-sharing pact has doubled within six months, a shift analysts say could translate into votes for Ruto should the political realignment hold to 2027. The survey found backing for the coalition rose from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent by November, underscoring Raila’s lingering influence over a significant voting bloc.
Conducted between November 10 and 17 through face-to-face household interviews, the survey indicates that, while opposition to the broad-based government remains high at 48 per cent, the rapid growth in support signals a major political recalibration. TIFA attributes the shift to changing alliances, national developments, and a sympathy-driven consolidation following Odinga’s death in October.
The coalition took shape after President Ruto openly backed Raila’s unsuccessful bid for African Union Commission chairperson, a partnership that later saw ODM effectively relinquish its role as the official opposition. After the AU loss, several senior ODM figures were absorbed into Ruto’s Cabinet, further blurring traditional political lines.
While most Kenyans remain pessimistic about the country’s direction – 68 per cent say Kenya is heading the wrong way – the data suggests political unity, even symbolic, is reshaping voter attitudes. For Ruto, Raila’s final political gamble may yet prove decisive at the ballot box.