It will not be easy for President William Ruto to secure re-election in 2027. The reason is simple: elections are ultimately decided by numbers, and numbers are stubborn. They cannot be wished away or altered by political rhetoric.
For decades, the Mt. Kenya region has produced or strongly influenced Kenya’s presidents, and that reality has led some parts of the country to develop resentment toward the region. I do not share that view. You cannot fault a community simply because it has been successful in winning political power. Blaming Mt. Kenya for producing presidents is like blaming someone for where they were born. From my perspective, the Kikuyu community has done nothing wrong by being in power. Political power is won, not donated. When Jomo Kenyatta became Kenya’s first president, other communities were not politically organized enough to take over leadership, and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga ultimately backed Kenyatta’s leadership at independence.
Having understood the value of political power, the Kikuyu community worked to protect and sustain its influence by maintaining strong voter participation. Over the years, they built a formidable voting bloc that has remained one of the most decisive in Kenyan elections.
That brings us back to William Ruto. He became president largely because of overwhelming support from the Mt. Kenya region. That is a political reality. Today, however, he appears to have lost much of that support. At the same time, dissatisfaction with his leadership has grown in other regions. Policies and decisions that many Kenyans have viewed as anti-people have weakened his standing in areas such as Western Kenya, Nyanza and the Coast. In many respects, Ruto has squandered the political goodwill that carried him into office.
Looking ahead to the 2027 General Election, his path to victory appears far more difficult than it was in 2022. Without the numbers that propelled him to State House, winning another term becomes a steep challenge. Whether one agrees or disagrees with their politics, the Mt. Kenya voting bloc has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to vote in large numbers and with remarkable unity. In Kenyan politics, that kind of electoral strength can make or break a presidential campaign.